Market Update – May 13 – Inflation jump keeps trading nervous
Market News Today –Despite warnings from policymakers, the jump in prices will keep trading nervous. Central bank officials remain adamant that the inflation overshoot that will likely be mirrored in the UK and if not the Eurozone then Germany, is mainly due to base effects and should be transitory, but stocks at least are not so convinced. The surge in April CPI weighed heavily on Treasuries and the jump in yields knocked Wall Street sharply lower. The spike in CPI stole the show this week, though the Fed and indeed global monetary authorities have warned about rising inflationary pressures, the 0.8% jump in the headline and 0.9% surge in the core elicited heavy selling.
Wall Street is on its heels with the USA100 falling -2.67% and the USA500 and USA30 tumbling -2.14% and -1.99%, respectively. The Treasury’s 10-year auction was very well bid, though at the highest yield in over a year. Bond markets across Asia sold off in catch up trade.
BoJ’s Kuroda joined the chorus of central bank officials playing down the spike in inflation as mainly due to base effects, but that didn’t prevent a further sell off in Asian stock markets. Asian equity markets remained under pressure after the sell off on Wall Street yesterday and European stock futures are also lower, with GER30 and UK100 down -0.6% and -0.8% respectively in catch up trade, after still closing higher on Wednesday.
In FX markets, the USDJPY is little changed at 109.68. AUD and NZD underperformed. EURUSD and Cable are little changed at currently 1.2074 and 1.4055 respectively. USOIL is at the $65.37 area. Bitcoin slumped and then recovered somewhat, after Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla Inc has suspended vehicle purchases using the digital currency due to environmental concerns.
Today – Scandi and Swiss markets are closed and many countries are either celebrating Ascension Day or end end of Ramadan, which will likely make for quiet trading conditions. On tap we have US Jobless Claims and speeches from BoC Macklem and BoE Bailey.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.29%) spiked higher above R1 breaking the upper BB line and retesting the nearly 3-months Resistance, at 1.5700. Intraday the MAs aligned higher while RSI is at 71 but flattened and MACD is also positively configured suggesting a positive to neutral outlook. ATR (H1) at 0.00231 & ATR (D) at 0.00993.
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