Market Update – March 18 – BOE move, BOJ stay put – Stocks, Yields & Oil bounce
The BOE raised rates as expected by 25 bps to 0.75% but were less clear about next steps, strong US data (Claims, Housing & Phily Fed Index) helped US stocks (+1.25) to close higher (best 3-day gain since 2020) again as the USD cooled and Yields & Oil rallied (no immediate breakthrough in ceasefire talks). Overnight No change from BOJ but JPY Inflation finally perking up. Asian stocks positive (Nikkei +0.65%). Japan & Australia added sanctions, Biden to call Xi, Putin talked to Erdogan, Blinkin said “war crimes have been committed in Ukraine”.
- USD (USDIndex 98.12). Tested to 97.70 yesterday as weekly decline continues.
- US Yields 10-yr up to 2.192% on close – down to 2.178% now.
- Equities – USA500 +53.8 (+1.23%) and over 4400 to 4411. US500 FUTS flat at 4385 now. Tech & Fin rallied (FB & AMZN +2.0%, TSLA +3.73%, Occidental + 9.47%) and Berkshire Hathaway A-Shares breached $500,000 each!
- USOil – Rallied back over $100.00 yesterday. to test $104.80 (200HR MA) now.
- Gold – rallied to test $1950 yesterday, from Wednesdays flirt with $1900, trades at $1934 now.
- Bitcoin holds the break of $40,000 yesterday, trades at $40,600 now.
- FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1078, unable to hold breach of 1.1100, USDJPY testing 119.00 & new 5-year highs at 118.85 and Cable having spiked over 1.3200 pre- BOE yesterday back to 1.3150 now, from 1.3100.
European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down -5 ticks, while US futures are posting slight gains. Gilts benefited yesterday from the BOE’s “dovish-hike”, but after the initial move lower in yields, we could see some consolidation today. The FTSE 100 futures is posting modest gains, after local markets got a boost from a drop in Sterling yesterday. The DAX is fractionally lower this morning as stagflation concerns make a come back.
Today – US Existing Home Sales, CBR Policy Announcements, Quad Witching, Speeches from Fed’s Barkin, Bowman & Evans. Call between US President Biden and Chinese President Xi.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.52%) Rally continues after another big move yesterday from 84.60 lows Tuesday to test 88.00 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram strong but cooling, RSI 73, OB but rising, H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.980.
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