Market Rebounds as Putin Signals Readiness for Peace Talks; Focus Shifts to NVIDIA!

• US Stocks drop to a 2-week low after Ukraine fired US-made missiles into Russia, but rebound in the US session. 
• Putin updates nuclear doctrine, allowing Russia to strike Ukraine if it uses weapons from nuclear-armed nations.
• Walmart again beat earnings expectations pushing the stock 3.00% higher. Earnings Per Share beat expectations by 8.00%.
• The Japanese Yen loses momentum and corrects back to previous lows. The US Dollar maintains strong bullish momentum. 
• UK Inflation Rate rises from 1.7% to 2.3% supporting the GBP despite budget concerns continuing. 
• NVIDIA is set to release their quarterly earnings report after market close. NVIDIA stock has risen more than 5.00% indicating the market expects a beat. 

NASDAQ – All Eyes On NVIDIA Earnings Report!

The NASDAQ ended Tuesday 0.71% higher despite coming under significant pressure during the Asian and European session. The NASDAQ fell 1.20% during the day’s first two sessions due to geopolitical tensions triggering a much lower risk appetite. This is due to the US as well as other countries agreeing to allow Ukraine to strike Russia with foreign made weapons. Ukraine quickly took advantage of this by firing ATACMS into Russia. Russia responded by changing their nuclear weapon use doctrine. 

Here we can see why the global stock market fell rapidly. However, why did the market recover during the US session?

During the US session, the risk appetite and confidence of the market improved as the White House confirmed nothing changes with Russia changing their Nuclear Weapons Doctrine. In addition to this, President Putin also said that he would be willing to start peace talks with President Elect Trump. Lastly, the market also took the opportunity to purchase the lower price since NVIDIA’s earnings report is imminent and Walmart already beat their earnings expectations. 

Walmart is not a component of the NASDAQ, but has improved the sentiment towards the US stock market. NVIDIA, which is on the NASDAQ, is set to release their quarterly earnings report after market close. NVIDIA stock rose 4.89% yesterday and a further 0.47% this morning indicating the market expects a beat. Analysts expect the company’s Earnings Per Share to rise from $0.68 to $0.75 and revenue from $30.04 billion to $33.14 billion. As no US economic data is set to be made public throughout the day, investors are solely concentrating on geopolitical tensions and earnings. 

The price of the NASDAQ rose above the 75-bar exponential moving average on the 2-hour chart for the first time since 14th. Traders will be monitoring whether the index will be able to maintain momentum above this level and if the price may also rise above the 100-bar SMA. Traders will be waiting for the NASDAQ to regain bullish momentum and if so will act accordingly. Buy signals are likely to rise if the price increases above $20,764.30 and intensifies above $20,777.93.

GBPUSD – UK Inflation Rises Above Expectations!

The price of the GBPUSD increased in value taking the exchange rate to a 1-week high, but concerns remain according to analysts. The exchange rate is trading 0.30% higher after the UK made public their latest inflation rate. The UK inflation rate rose from 1.7% to 2.3% which is higher than previous expectations and considerably higher than the previous month. 

The GBP is currently the best performing currency with the Pound index trading 0.21% higher. However, the second best performing is the US Dollar Index which is trading 0.14% higher. Therefore, investors need to be cautious that a retrace or correction is still possible while the US Dollar Index remains high. 

Currently the Pound is coming under pressure from the Autumn Budget and from farming strikes which are continuing. However, comments from the Bank of England could support the currency. The BoE warns that planned National Insurance hikes in the Labour budget may drive up prices, slow wage growth, and reduce hiring. Significant inflation could force prolonged tight monetary policy.

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Michalis Efthymiou

Market Analyst

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