- Stocks rebound after leading economists come out in force to confirm no recession is approaching.
- The NASDAQ rises 2.87% and the Dow Jones 1.77%. The SNP500 witnesses its best day since November 2022.
- A sense of relief after the Weekly Unemployment Claims was 8,000 lower than expectations.
- The British Pound gets ready for a week full of vital economic data. The GBP remains unchanged prior to the London open.
USA30 – Why The Dow Jones Rose 1.77% On Thursday?
The Dow Jones on Thursday saw a strong rebound which was a result of three elements. The first is that economists came out in force to confirm there is no sign in economic data indicating a recession. Speeches from the CEOs of Commerzbank, Goldman Sachs, and Disney said there was no data pointing to a crash. However, they did advise the market is likely to witness high volatility and strong correction in the upcoming months.
Looking at economic data, the US economy remains strongly in the growth zone, but with a more balanced employment sector and weakening consumer demand. The second element supporting the stock market is the Weekly Unemployment Claims. Weekly Unemployment Claims was 8,000 lower than expectations (241,000). Lastly, technical analysts also advised the market was comfortable to buy the dip after the stock market was unable to maintain the downward momentum from Monday.
When monitoring the individual components of the Dow Jones, all stocks ended the day higher. The strongest gains were from Intel which rose 7.90% and Amgen which won back previous losses. Caterpillar also continues to perform well after beating its earnings expectations by 8.00% also adding to the upward momentum. In addition to this, the VIX index trades 0.20% lower this morning, and if the decline increases, the VIX would support a continued correction in the stock market.
Dow Jones (USA30) – Technical Analysis and US Inflation
A key factor in the pricing of the stock market will be next week’s Consumer Price Index. The inflation rate will help determine how much the Federal Reserve will be willing to cut in September. JP Morgan in its latest report advised there is a 35% chance of a recession, and the Fed may cut interest rates by 1.00% in 2024. However, many economists believe the Fed will only cut by 50 basis points in September if inflation falls next week. Lower inflation can support the stock market and further fuel a correction.
The Dow Jones has been trading sideways throughout the Asian session with no clear lasting crossovers. In addition to this, the MACD remains numb and the price trades at the VWAP. Therefore, more volatility is needed to obtain a clear signal. If the price breaks above the 39,551.75 level, a buy signal may arise from the breakout via crossovers and Fibonacci.
GBPEUR – Investors Brace For Crucial UK Data In The Upcoming Week!
The British Pound has significantly fallen in value over the past 3 weeks but has been attempting a correction over the past 3 days. The price is at the average price, but the economic data next week will be crucial for the Pound. A full correction back to 0.83820 or further bullish price movement will depend on the data.
EURGBP – Impact Of High Interest Rates!
In the following week, the UK will release their Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index, UK inflation, Retail Sales and the UK’s Gross Domestic Product. These 5 critical economic releases will indicate if the UK economy is solid and expanding or remains under pressure.
It is noteworthy that the UK Finance association has published data indicating the significant impact of high interest rates. Experts highlight that the number of creditors’ claims for repossessing mortgaged properties has reached its highest level in five years. During this period, 96,000 homeowners were in arrears of at least 2.5%.
Additionally, claims for mortgage non-payment rose by 34.0% year-on-year while repossessions of mortgaged properties increased by 31.0% compared to the same period last year. Therefore, it will be vital for the Pound to obtain supporting economic data in the upcoming week.
Michalis Efthymiou
Market Analyst
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